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Rahul Goswami

Chasing The Rain: Gathering Crisis for Indian Agriculture

A second wind for economic reforms in India will do nothing for India's agriculture-based populations if their community and livelihood conditions continue to be neglected. A near normal 2009 monsoon can give the new government the support it needs to invest in understanding the economies of cultivator communities. The need to make such an investment has never been more acute, and there is a host of indicators and knowledge available to guide India's vast foodgrain management bureaucracy. This administration must learn to listen and then respond to local need instead of pursuing narrowcast programmes and schemes, as it has done from the heyday of the Green Revolution.

The first quarter of 2009 has been signally different from the quarter of a year ago. Oil and gas prices are very much lower, crop estimates are healthy in the short term and encouraging in the long term, the offtake of rice and wheat is strong and rising, and inflation is said to be under control. Administrative India considers itself well armed with the tools needed to counter the global financial and credit crises, and while the country's consumer goods industry looks at rural markets as the key to survival in tougher economic conditions, its agriculture and foodgrain bureaucracy is comforting itself with friendly crop production, yield and acreage data. In the country's commodities exchanges, agriculture indices are climbing steadily upwards and the third advance estimates for 2008-09 crop production from the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation provide buoyant numbers...there's more in the pdf file. Regards, Rahul Goswami

RG_2009Jun_India_AgriPolicy.pdf

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